Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.

Download as PDF Printable version. He attempts to electoral calculus scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results. School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy website.

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Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model.

Electoral calculus

Click on the map image to go to a full browsable map of the all the new seats. The current constituency boundaries have been in use since Neither of the two previous boundary reviews in and have been adopted and implemented. In a written statement in March , the government announced that it is going to restart the stalled programme of new boundaries for Westminster constituencies. This new review will keep the number of seats at and not reduce them to as had been planned by David Cameron's coalition government. But the next boundary review will require new seats to be nearly identical in terms of the number of electors in each seat. The review has a very strict limit, and requires each new seat to have an electorate which was not further than 5pc lower or higher than the average. The previous legislation also specified that further new boundary reviews would take place every five years. This new act changes that period to every eight years, allowing for two Westminster elections to take place using each set of boundaries. The current boundaries were first used in and in Scotland , and are now getting a little out of date.

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The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It considers national factors and local demographics. Next statement date 30 May due by 13 June To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. You've accepted analytics cookies. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. Skip to main content. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. Accounts Next accounts made up to 31 May due by 28 February Last accounts made up to 31 May

Read the headline prediction, and also see the full details about which seats would be won and lost if there were a general election tomorrow.

Next statement date 30 May due by 13 June Toggle limited content width. Skip to main content. Archived from the original on 5 May Last accounts made up to 31 May Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. Use this service to order a certified copy of a document from a company's filing history. Skip to main content. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. Use this service to order a signed certificate of incorporation, which can include key details about the company and a statement of good standing. Politics in Spires. Electoral Calculus.