Metaculus

This follows our May support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. We metaculus this will provide Open Philanthropy, metaculus, our grantees, and many

We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, our grantees, and many others with improved tools for effective planning in high-priority areas such as mitigating extreme risks from AI and synthetic pathogens. This follows our July support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. This falls within our focus area of potential This falls Close menu. Table of Contents.

Metaculus

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can earn points for successful predictions or lose points for unsuccessful predictions , and track their own predictive progress. In June , the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. Contents move to sidebar hide. Article Talk. Read Edit View history. Tools Tools. Download as PDF Printable version. Online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Retrieved 22 January Retrieved 15 February Metaculus FAQ. Archived from the original on

Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet, metaculus.

.

Online prediction markets began cropping up in the late s, focusing on everything from movie box office receipts to the outcome of presidential elections. Researchers have speculated that prediction markets are more successful when they include a diversity of informed opinions. Yet such websites are not infallible. Perhaps the most famous recent example of this was the Brexit vote in Great Britain. Prediction markets said voters would opt to remain in the European Union; instead, voters chose to leave the EU.

Metaculus

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for thousands of forecasters, delivering machine learning-optimized aggregate forecasts on topics of global importance. The Metaculus forecasting community is often inspired by altruistic causes, and Metaculus has a long history of partnering with nonprofit organizations, university researchers and companies to increase the positive impact of its forecasts. Metaculus therefore poses questions about the occurrence of a variety of future events, on many timescales, to a community of participating forecasters — you! Forecasting is a systematic practice of attempting to answer questions about future events. On Metaculus, we follow a few principles to elevate forecasting above simple guesswork:. First, questions are carefully specified so that everyone understands beforehand and afterward which kinds of outcomes are included in the resolution, and which are not. Forecasters then give precise probabilities that measure their uncertainty about the outcome. Second, Metaculus aggregates the forecasts into a simple median community prediction, and an advanced Metaculus Prediction.

Best slots to put ram in

Retrieved 15 February Retrieved 22 January These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. This follows our July support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. Hidden categories: Articles with short description Short description is different from Wikidata. Back to Grants Database. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. Table of Contents. It does not store any personal data. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website.

Prediction Resources.

The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Table of Contents. Categories : Predictive analytics Prediction markets Organizations associated with effective altruism. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. Back to Grants Database. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. Archived from the original on The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website.