Nfl playoff picture predictor

Can Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes do what no one ever has and win three in a row? We have our typical Super Bowl favorites and long shots, but we also have a few surprises thrown in to impact a competitive playoff picture. Down below, we dive into our early playoff predictions for the football season, nfl playoff picture predictor division by division, complete with our predicted Super Bowl outcome.

A Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon puts pressure on the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars to win to keep their spots in the postseason field. Saturday's second game will be for a playoff position, as the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans. Buffalo and Jacksonville can join the Colts-Texans winner with victories of their own, but if they lose on Sunday, Pittsburgh will be lurking if it beats Baltimore. Green Bay controls its own fate for the No. The Steelers need to beat the Ravens to make the Bills and Jaguars feel a bit uncomfortable going into Sunday.

Nfl playoff picture predictor

The following table shows my NFL playoff predictor model. For more info about how it works, read below. This NFL playoff predictor model uses team ratings and quarterback adjustments to simulate the rest of the postseason 5, times and track how often each team wins the Super Bowl. But there are a few twists in these ratings:. Unlike the SRS, which uses a basic linear regression model, we use a ridge regression to account for the fact that NFL schedules are short and, in the case of quarterbacks, some starters may have only seen limited action during the season. By penalizing ratings that are less certain shrinking them toward an effect size of zero , ridge regression allows us to avoid large errors for ratings that suffer from multicollinearity. Each team carries a QB EPA rating on offense and defense, also determined by ridge regression, along with a rating for the QB who had the majority of attempts in a given game. The only other adjustment here is to also downweight Week 18 games if a team was resting its starters; games where both teams rested starters receive a weight of 0. Filed under: NFL , Statgeekery. Share this post. Copy link. Neil Paine. Jan 29, Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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You can jump to a specific section using the links below:. The top seven teams from the AFC will make the playoffs. The Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, and Bills are the teams who will be returning to the playoffs, as all have now clinched. The top seven seeds in the NFC will make the playoffs. The Rams, Lions, and Packers will be the three new faces in. The bracket for the NFC is fully set now.

Five playoff spots and multiple seeding battles remain, with 32 games left in the NFL regular season. The possible permutations of how those 32 games could go are virtually endless. So we're focusing on one specific scenario: chalk. We then picked a single simulation that yielded that pure chalk playoff seeding to forecast scores for each game and simulate the postseason. That might not sound like a lot, but it's a fairly high probability for an exact hit; both numbers are higher than when we did this exercise last season. Who snuck into the playoffs? Who landed the No. And who fell just short of the postseason? Let's take a look into the FPI's crystal ball. The story of Week 17 is a playoff picture that comes slightly more into focus but still remains blurry heading into the season's final week.

Nfl playoff picture predictor

How this works: This forecast is based on 50, simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. Full methodology ». Game metrics are on a scale. Design and development by Jay Boice.

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With how young this roster is, expect an even better team to come out of the gates hot in , leading to a playoff appearance once again. Related: How much does a Super Bowl ad cost? After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. Chicago may not be able to slow down a Green Bay team that is in its last eight games and that beat the Bears by 18 points in Week 1. Baltimore secured the AFC's No. Inconsistent play from Geno Smith also led to mixed results. The Rams, Lions, and Packers will be the three new faces in. Seattle, New Orleans and Minnesota all need the teams in front of them to lose to clinch playoff spots. Hit the links in the left column to get more information on the best promo codes from each sportsbook, or use the links in the right column to start the registration process and unlock the listed offer. We look at our predictions for the NFL Playoff bracket. This app is awesome. This year it was the Carolina Panthers. The bracket for the NFC is fully set now. While having a great coach is important, talent trumps coaching.

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Pittsburgh remained competitive thanks to a top defense featuring game-wrecker T. After winning a playoff game for the first time since , and reaching the NFC Championship, the Lions will be a better team overall next season. The Lions have become a ferocious force on both sides of the ball, with the defense continuing to improve. Safety starts with understanding how developers collect and share your data. We have to give the Cardinals some credit because this team gave opponents a few tough fits. Until they fix that problem, the Giants will struggle to contend. DraftKings Promo Code. The Colts need to find a way to slow down Stroud, and if that happens, they will end up in the postseason field. Copy link. Seattle, New Orleans and Minnesota all need the teams in front of them to lose to clinch playoff spots. But this is still one of the most talented rosters in football, meaning we expect the Cowboys to be as good as ever again in Baltimore secured the AFC's No. Addressing all those needs may not happen in one offseason. Data privacy and security practices may vary based on your use, region, and age.